GEIA Policy Briefs provide concise information on pressing policy issues and potential implications for opinion leaders, policymakers, business leaders and the general public. GEIA Research Summaries provide executive summaries of academic research papers and other publications in order to provide an overview of the key findings and implications.


FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND POLITICAL LONGEVITY IN AFRICA: Theoretically, the effect of political longevity on foreign direct investment (FDI) in a country is ambiguous. Th­e outcome depends on the ways in which, and the extent to which, longevity affects such factors as political stability, policy consistency, physical infrastructure, bureaucracy, the rule of law, corruption, and the protection of property rights. Download paper here.

THE RISE AND FALL OF AMERICA’S NEW SILK ROAD STRATEGY: A critical African node for China is Djibouti, where China is building a naval base, which should be completed in 2017. China also financed reconstructing a railway that links Djibouti to Addis Ababa in Ethiopia. In January 2017, Africa’s first electric transnational train made its inaugural 446-mile journey from Djibouti toward Addis Ababa. Download paper here.

BREAKING THE CURSE IN AFRICA: Bingu wa Mutharika, economist and former President of Malawi, once said: Africa is not a poor continent; but the people of Africa are poor. Among others, modernization, dependency and the big-push theories explain economic backwardness in Third World countries. Despite unprecedentedly high prices of natural resources in the past few decades, resource-rich jurisdictions are home to over 60% of the world’s poorest people. Increasingly, the impact of natural resources on economic growth is a subject of intense growth, compared to resource-intensive ones, remains a puzzle in development economics. Download paper here.

EGYPT’S NEW IMF AGREEMENT IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE: A dangerous balance of payments crisis was averted at the 11th hour. In August 2016, Sisi reached a three-year agreement – which provides Egypt with a $12 billion loan – with IMF. The IMF deal paves the way for $2 billion to $3 billion in Eurobond loans. Egypt also has access to a $3 billion World Bank loan and a $1 billion loan from the African Development Bank.  On the bilateral front, Saudi Arabia has agreed to provide a $12 billion aid package to Egypt. Download paper here.

AFRICA AND THE GEOPOLITICS OF TUMBLING OIL PRICES: The current slide in oil prices continues to impact policy choices across the world. Where does Africa stand? According to the International Monetary Fund, 22 countries are expected to grow by at least 7 percent a year on average in the 2014-19 period; 14 of these will be in Africa. If it grows every year at 7 percent, an economy can be expected to double its size within a decade – that’s how significant a 7 percent growth rate can be. Download paper here.